Software: World map with rising sea levels

Theorising rising sea levels drowned Atlantis drove Dutch Douwe Osinga to write a program to create coastlines maps at various water levels. One expects the Dutch to be more interested than most in this subject of sea levels rising I guess.

Interesting site. Check out his blog as well. See what a Google Europe geek does with his spare time when not writing rising sea levels simulators.

Flat Earth Theory #1: Hotter sun causes global warming naturally.

If global warming is man-made then ignorance must be a root problem, and I will be contesting it in my Flat Earth Theory series.

There are clearly vested interests who fight hard to obscure the fact that the fossil fuel emissions increase the onset of climate change (we just have to see how the US, Saudi Arabia and Australia stonewalled at the Montreal UN Climate Change Conference), and I always find it fascinating how their spin finds itself into the mouths of the general public.

Glitch, a regular has forwarded the theory that increased solar activity is the driver behind the global warming we observe:
I'm sorry - but I believe that the earth's temp is PRIMARILY driven by variations in the Sun's output.

If EVERY CAR/TRUCK/PLANE/ELECTRIC POWER PLANT was turned off TODAY, I do not believe it would change the 'global climate' - sea levels will go up and go down...and there is NOTHING humanity can do about it.
Glitch has a good point, the sun is indeed the greatest influence on the earth's temperature, but that is not the whole story. I will try to illustrate with an example. If I go sunbathing, the sun will initially be the greatest influence on my body temperature, which would rise. So far Glitch's argument is supported in this example. But then my pores would open in response to my body's increased temperature and I would sweat. This sweating will cause evaporation thus cooling down my body and keeping it at an average temperature of around 37 degrees Celsius. The biological name for a mechanism for maintaining equilibrium is called homeostasis. Without a homestatic mechanism for cooling I would just heat up, cook and die.

If we take the view that the earth is an organism of sorts, as in the Gaia theory of James E Lovelock, then we can attribute Gaia with a homeostatic mechanism that keeps her temperature at an equilibrium that sustains life. Gaia's temperature chart for the last 1800 years (Mann, et al, 2003) indicates that this is indeed what happens.

2005's Scientific Milestones

With a US court ruling Intelligent Design as religion dressed up as science here's a review of how well science served us in 2005.
With this in mind, the journal of the American Association for the Advancement of Science has declared discoveries about evolution the 2005 winner of its annual list of top 10 breakthroughs.

"Today evolution is the foundation of all biology, so basic and all-pervasive that scientists sometimes take its importance for granted," Science concludes.

Huge numbers of studies in this field are generated annually. But "2005 stands out as a banner year for uncovering the intricacies of how evolution actually proceeds", it says.

The genetic code of a chimpanzee named Clint was deciphered this year, for example, revealing that 96 per cent of our DNA is identical to his.
Other top 10 scientific breakthroughs include discoveries in how miswiring of the brain occurs, climate change events, earth's origins, nuclear fusion, cellular biology, the nature of neutron stars, secrets of flowering, cell communication, voyages to the planets.

It is hugely impressive that mankind has been to the outer rings of Saturn, and landed the European spacecraft Huygens on Titan to find a world where liquid methane rains down to create valleys and lakes. And yet humbling to know that our DNA is 96% match with that of chimpanzee-kind. It is impossible not to admire the minds that discovered that our cells communicate with each other using a chemical network as complex as the Internet, and hard not to feel despair for human beings who ignore the signs and pace of global warming.

Dinosaurs cooked by global warming

Fresh fossil leaves analysis shows there was a sudden and dramatic rise in carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere 65 million years ago. It's what killed the dinosaurs, say researchers. C02 was injected into the atmosphere in vast amounts by the impact of an asteroid striking CO2 rich limestone rock and the ensuing blistering heatwave that followed raised global temperatures by as much as 7.5 Celsius making it impossible for the ancient reptiles and countless other lifeforms to survive. CO2 levels were estimsted to be four to five times higher for 10,000 years after the impact

The researchers from the University of Sheffield, UK, and Southwest Texas State University and Pennsylvania State University, US, studied the fossilised pores of leaf of gingkoes and ferns that grew around the time of the dinosaurs' demise. The number of carbon dioxide-absorbing pores in the fossils reflects the amount of carbon dioxide in the air: the fewer the pores, the more carbon dioxide.

By using computer simulations and doing real experiments on plants, the scientists can show there was a sudden, five-fold increase in CO2 at the end of the Cretaceous.

Social and political debate

Over the past several years, increased awareness of the scientific findings surrounding global warming has resulted in political and economic debate. Poor regions, particularly Africa, appear at greatest risk from the suggested effects of global warming, while their actual emissions have been small compared to the developed world. At the same time, developing country exemptions from provisions of the Kyoto Protocol have been criticized by the United States and Australia, and have been used as part of the rationale for continued non-ratification by the U.S. In the Western world, the idea of human influence on climate has gained wider acceptance in Europe than in the United States.

The issue of climate change has sparked debate weighing the benefits of limiting industrial emissions of greenhouse gases against the costs that such changes would entail. There has been discussion in several countries about the cost and benefits of adopting alternative energy sources in order to reduce carbon emissions. Organizations and companies such as the Competitive Enterprise Institute and ExxonMobil have emphasized more conservative climate change scenarios while highlighting the potential economic cost of stricter controls. Likewise, various environmental lobbies and a number of public figures have launched campaigns to emphasize the potential risks of climate change and promote the implementation of stricter controls. Some fossil fuel companies have scaled back their efforts in recent years, or called for policies to reduce global warming.

Another point of debate is the degree to which newly developed economies such as India and China should be expected to constrain their emissions. China's gross national CO2 emissions are expected to exceed those of the U.S. within the next few years, and may have already done so according to a 2006 report. China has contended that it has less of an obligation to reduce emissions since its per capita emissions are roughly one-fifth that of the United States. India, also exempt from Kyoto restrictions and another of the biggest sources of industrial emissions, has made similar assertions. However, the U.S. contends that if they must bear the cost of reducing emissions, then China should do the same.

Attributed and expected effects Of Global Warming

Although it is difficult to connect specific weather events to global warming, an increase in global temperatures may in turn cause broader changes, including glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage, and worldwide sea level rise. Changes in the amount and pattern of precipitation may result in flooding and drought. There may also be changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Other effects may include changes in agricultural yields, addition of new trade routes, reduced summer streamflows, species extinctions, and increases in the range of disease vectors.

Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, are being attributed in part to global warming.While changes are expected for overall patterns, intensity, and frequencies, it is difficult to attribute specific events to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and adverse health effects from warmer temperatures.

Increasing deaths, displacements, and economic losses projected due to extreme weather attributed to global warming may be exacerbated by growing population densities in affected areas, although temperate regions are projected to experience some benefits, such as fewer deaths due to cold exposure. A summary of probable effects and recent understanding can be found in the report made for the IPCC Third Assessment Report by Working Group II. The newer IPCC Fourth Assessment Report summary reports that there is observational evidence for an increase in intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean since about 1970, in correlation with the increase in sea surface temperature, but that the detection of long-term trends is complicated by the quality of records prior to routine satellite observations. The summary also states that there is no clear trend in the annual worldwide number of tropical cyclones.

Climate models

Scientists have studied global warming with computer models of the climate. These models are based on physical principles of fluid dynamics, radiative transfer, and other processes, with simplifications being necessary because of limitations in computer power and the complexity of the climate system. All modern climate models include an atmospheric model that is coupled to an ocean model and models for ice cover on land and sea. Some models also include treatments of chemical and biological processes.These models predict that the effect of adding greenhouse gases is to produce a warmer climate. However, even when the same assumptions of future greenhouse gas levels are used, there still remains a considerable range of climate sensitivity.
Current climate models produce a good match to observations of global temperature changes over the last century, but do not simulate all aspects of climate. These models do not unambiguously attribute the warming that occurred from approximately 1910 to 1945 to either natural variation or human effects; however, they suggest that the warming since 1975 is dominated by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.

Global climate model projections of future climate are forced by imposed greenhouse gas emission scenarios, most often from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Less commonly, models may also include a simulation of the carbon cycle; this generally shows a positive feedback, though this response is uncertain (under the A2 SRES scenario, responses vary between an extra 20 and 200 ppm of CO2). Some observational studies also show a positive feedback.
The representation of clouds is one of the main sources of uncertainty in present-generation models, though progress is being made on this problem.

EPA sets ethanol content standard in petrol.

The US EPA has finally acknowledged that ethanol blended petrol burns cleaner and mandated a 2.78% blend of ethanol and petroleum gasoline to be sold. The higher octane ethanol burns more cleanly in a combustion engine reducing harmful emissions.

The Environmental Protection Agency said on Wednesday it expects the US oil industry will meet the EPA's new standard that requires 2.78 percent of gasoline sold next year to be renewable fuel, such as ethanol.

Congress passed a broad energy bill which was signed into law in August, requiring ethanol production almost to double to 7.5 billion gallons a year by 2012 to help make gasoline burn cleaner, stretch available US motor fuel supplies and reduce petroleum imports.
This is progress. Although the pace has been set by those Brazilians who use up to 25% ethanol blended petrol without any problems the US is the largest consumer of fuel in the world with the Energy Department forecasting that 141.6 billion gallons of gasoline will be sold next year in the US market. The legislation also encompases biodiesel and other renewable fuels.

2005 wins for science

A Concerned Scientist looks back at some wins for science and and conservation in the assult by ID activists, and big oil's search for big deposits. Sustainable Energy 2005 Round-up:
2005 saw it's drastic ups and downs in gas and energy prices, with the threat of Peak Oil to our economy looming, our energy infrastructure remaining a troublesome national security issue, and evidence abounding for the acceleration of global warming and climate change. But renewable energy has seen great progress this last year as well, with numerous local and state initiatives proposed and implemented (even if Bush continues to stand in the way), further R on improving energy and transportation technologies, and a nascent community of private companies taking steps towards a sustainable future (e.g. GE, BP).

At the top of the list are Governor Schwarzenegger's (R-CA) Million Solar Roofs Initiative, the Northeast's Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, and a series of other regional projects encouraging Kyoto-like emissions reduction targets. Given the threat posed by a collapse following contraction of our petroleum-based economy, expanding alternative fuels and energies is a must. Significant obstacles remain, however: most solar panels still require expensive highly purified silicon; wind farms are objected to as unsightly and threaten migratory birds/bats; biofuels would take more energy to produce than they would supply and don't represent a permanent solution to carbon emissions; hydrogen fuel cells still require expensive platinum and other components, and hydrogen production/distribution schemes remain unsatisfactory; nuclear power has gotten safer in the last 30 years, but still has questions of waste disposal that need addressing; and coal does nothing to address carbon emissions, although mercury and other pollutants have been cleaned up substantially.

Still, we must laud the initiatives and projects that've seen notable progress this year, as we head towards Peak Oil.
I would add the growing realisation that GM seeds have lower yields than unmodified seeds to be a win. Modifying seeds genetically so they can help sell more chemical fertiliser (at the expense of the environment) does not deserve to be a sustainable business.

EFFECT OF GASES ON ENVIRONMENT

Ethanol-blended petrol has advantages and disadvantages for the environment over normal petrol ? the extent of most of them depends on factors such as the percentage of the blend, the engine type and how the ethanol was produced:
A 10% blend generally reduces the car?s emissions of carbon monoxide, hydrocarbons, some carcinogens such as benzene and toluene and ? in some circumstances ? the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide. However, due to the government subsidy, any reduction of carbon dioxide emissions comes at a very high price compared to other initiatives.
Ethanol increases the petrol?s volatility, and therefore the amount of evaporative emissions of volatile organic compounds, which can contribute to global warming and the formation of ground-level ozone (summer smog). This can be avoided by changing the volatility of the petrol used for blending.
There are higher emissions of carcinogenic aldehydes (such as formaldehyde and acetaldehyde) and ? in most cases ? of oxides of nitrogen.
Overall, there seems to be little benefit for urban air quality or greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the use of ethanol-blended petrol. However, as ethanol is produced from agricultural products or waste, it?s a renewable energy source.

New Year Green Resolutions - Use E15 petrol only

My Renault Megan 2.0 litre engine is warranteed to takes up to a 15% blend of ethanol and gasoline. The French have been driving on blended petrol and biodiesel/diesel blends for years. There is an independent petrol station in Randwick selling an E15 blend under the name of ULP. My New Year Resolution is to merge the two happy co-incidences and give them my custom.

The rewards are many. The ethanol is derived from Queensland grown sugarcane so this helps reduce Australia's reliance on foreign oil infrastructure. It gives the Megane more punch when needed and helps reduce greenhouse gas emissions as this report from 2003 shows.

Engine performance and total emissions are both improved by the addition of ethanol to gasoline. The clean burning nature of ethanol allows you to capture more of the work from the fossil portion of the gasoline, which compensates largely for the lower energy content of ethanol itself. In a 10 per cent blend (E10), all other things being held the same, you might get a zero to 2.7 per cent loss in mileage (kilometres per litre).

Another performance benefit from ethanol is its high octane addition to fuel. Of all the commercially viable octane enhancers possible, nothing delivers more punch than ethanol. The populace still feels the ill effects of the tons of poisonous lead that were spewed into urban environments because of the poor decision to accept lead over ethanol as the octane additive of choice.

Global warming

Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the Earth's near-surface air and oceans in recent decades and its projected continuation.

The global average air temperature near the Earth's surface rose 0.74 ± 0.18 °C (1.33 ± 0.32 °F) during the hundred years ending in 2005. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-twentieth century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations" via the greenhouse effect. Natural phenomena such as solar variation combined with volcanoes probably had a small warming effect from pre-industrial times to 1950 and a small cooling effect from 1950 onward. These basic conclusions have been endorsed by at least thirty scientific societies and academies of science, including all of the national academies of science of the major industrialized countries.While individual scientists have voiced disagreement with some findings of the IPCC, the overwhelming majority of scientists working on climate change agree with the IPCC's main conclusions.